Another statistical method applied to the House elections might tell us a similar story.
Democrat Conor Lamb swung this southwestern Pennsylvania district by more than 20 points. Here's the data behind his win and what it means for Democrats more broadly in 2018.
The polling says that Conor Lamb (Dem.) is favored, but he could easily lose by double digits to Rick Saccone (Rep.) and still perform within the realm of possibilities.
Democrats just wrapped up a whirlwind two weeks of early voting for the 2018 Texas primary elections. What does that mean for November?
The court-proposed redraw of the Pennsylvania Congressional map gives Democrats two more U.S. House seats and increases their chance of a majority by 4%.