2016 Presidential Election Forecast


How does this work?

Read all about that here


National Forecast

Hillary Clinton has a 84.59% chance of winning the Presidency.
Trump has a 15.41% chance.

Clinton wins with 323 electoral votes.

Electoral Map


323 Clinton
Trump 215

National Forecast





The Electoral College


Although we have a good idea of the mood of the country by looking at national polls, the real power behind forecasting comes in simulation. For each state, I simulate an election based on current calculated odds. If Clinton wins that state, she gets the electoral votes. If Trump wins, he gets the votes. Once each state has been simulated 20,000 times, I sum the electoral votes and we have a good idea what the most likely outcome of the election will be.

Clinton's Electoral Votes Over Time


Electoral Scenarios


Scenario Probability
Electoral fault (no candidate > 270 EVs) 0.9%
Clinton wins while losing a swing state 72.9%
Trump wins while losing a swing state 12.1%
Clinton wins all five swing states 11.7%
Trump wins all five swing states 2.5%
Clinton wins more electoral votes than Obama in 2012 (>332 EVs) 25.3%
Trump wins more electoral votes than Romney (>206 EVs) 73.3%
Clinton landslide victory (>380 EVs) 1.9%
Trump landslide victory (>380 EVs) <.1%


Who will win in each state


Below are a list of win probabilities in every state. As state polling averages move farther apart, these win probabilities will diverge. Similarly, as polling averages move towards each other, these win probabilities will converge. In short, the closer they are, the more probable it is that the race is tied.

Note:These are not expected vote shares, they are win probabilities. The number you see next to each state is the chance that candidate has of winning the election.

Swing States:


All States:

Use the dropdown menu at the top of the page to switch between state forecasts.


Recent Polls


Pollster Clinton Trump Date
YouGov/Economist 45% 41% 11/07
YouGov/Economist 49% 45% 11/07
Lucid/The Times-Picayune 45% 40% 11/07
Bloomberg/Selzer 46% 43% 11/07
Bloomberg/Selzer 44% 41% 11/07
ABC/Post 47% 43% 11/07
ABC/Post 49% 46% 11/07
Monmouth University 50% 44% 11/07
Monmouth University 50% 44% 11/07
FOX 48% 44% 11/07

Today's Polls


Pollster Clinton Trump Date State/Region
SurveyMonkey 31% 47% 11/07 Alaska
Data Orbital (R) 44% 47% 11/07 Arizona
Remington Research Group (R)/Axiom Strategies 42% 41% 11/07 Colorado
SurveyMonkey 49% 39% 11/07 Delaware
Opinion Savvy 48% 46% 11/07 Florida
Quinnipiac 46% 45% 11/07 Florida
Quinnipiac 46% 46% 11/07 Florida
Remington Research Group (R)/Axiom Strategies 45% 48% 11/07 Florida
Landmark (R)/Rosetta Stone 46% 49% 11/07 Georgia
CBS/YouGov 43% 49% 11/07 Georgia
SurveyMonkey 52% 35% 11/07 Illinois
SurveyMonkey 35% 53% 11/07 Kentucky
SurveyMonkey 38% 52% 11/07 Louisiana
NYT Upshot/Siena 44% 44% 11/07 North Carolina
Quinnipiac 47% 45% 11/07 North Carolina
Quinnipiac 48% 45% 11/07 North Carolina
Remington Research Group (R)/Axiom Strategies 45% 48% 11/07 North Carolina
UNH/WMUR 49% 38% 11/07 New Hampshire
Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling 45% 40% 11/07 New Mexico
Remington Research Group (R)/Axiom Strategies 45% 46% 11/07 Nevada
TargetSmart/William & Mary 40% 43% 11/07 Ohio
Remington Research Group (R)/Axiom Strategies 44% 45% 11/07 Ohio
CBS/YouGov 45% 43% 11/07 Pennsylvania
Remington Research Group (R)/Axiom Strategies 46% 45% 11/07 Pennsylvania
CBS/YouGov 23% 40% 11/07 Utah
Christopher Newport 48% 42% 11/07 Virginia
Remington Research Group (R)/Axiom Strategies 46% 44% 11/07 Virginia
Remington Research Group (R)/Axiom Strategies 49% 41% 11/07 Wisconsin
YouGov/Economist 45% 41% 11/07 National
YouGov/Economist 49% 45% 11/07 National
Lucid/The Times-Picayune 45% 40% 11/07 National
Bloomberg/Selzer 46% 43% 11/07 National
Bloomberg/Selzer 44% 41% 11/07 National
ABC/Post 47% 43% 11/07 National
ABC/Post 49% 46% 11/07 National
Monmouth University 50% 44% 11/07 National
Monmouth University 50% 44% 11/07 National
FOX 48% 44% 11/07 National

Keep an eye out for updates to this page. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me via twitter or email.