2018 Midterm Elections Forecast


Last updated December 13, 2017 08:03:04 AM

How does this work?


Chance of Winning a House Majority

Dem. Chance 51.6% Rep. Chance 48.4%


Outlined seats are seats that are favored to flip parties..

Fullscreen map here

Odds Over Time

Popular Vote

Popular vote percentage based on an average of generic ballot polls:

Dem. Vote: 41.6% Rep. Vote: 34.6% 23.8%

Two-party projection of election day using generic ballot polls.

Dem. Vote: 54.4% Rep. Vote: 45.6%

Seats

Median number of Democratic seats in our simulations (NOTE this may be more/less than the strict prediction of seats in the Seat Projections section below, for reasons explained here):

Dem. Seats: 218 Rep. Seats: 217



Popular Vote Forecast


In my projection of the two-party election day vote share, based on polls of the generic ballot, The Democratic Party is ahead, earning 54.4% of the two-party vote share on average. The margin of error is roughly 4.1% points, meaning the Democrats could earn as little as 50.3% or as much as 58.5% of the vote. Below are the generic congressional ballot polls used to make that projection:

Polls of the Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican Date Pollster
1 50 37 2017-12-07 Marist
2 42 36 2017-12-05 YouGov/Economist
3 37 31 2017-12-05 Ipsos/Reuters
4 40 38 2017-12-03 Politico/Morning Consult
5 41 35 2017-11-28 YouGov/Economist
6 36 30 2017-11-28 Ipsos/Reuters
7 42 36 2017-11-25 Politico/Morning Consult
8 37 28 2017-11-22 Ipsos/Reuters
9 42 33 2017-11-21 YouGov/Economist
10 43 36 2017-11-19 Politico/Morning Consult
11 43 40 2017-11-15 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist
12 42 34 2017-11-14 YouGov/Economist
13 38 31 2017-11-14 Ipsos/Reuters
14 44 36 2017-11-11 Politico/Morning Consult
15 51 36 2017-11-09 Marist
16 40 33 2017-11-07 YouGov/Economist
17 38 30 2017-11-07 Ipsos/Reuters
18 38 39 2017-11-06 Politico/Morning Consult
19 51 40 2017-11-05 CNN
20 51 40 2017-11-01 ABC/Post
21 39 36 2017-10-31 YouGov/Economist
22 40 31 2017-10-31 Ipsos/Reuters
23 43 38 2017-10-30 Politico/Morning Consult
24 44 37 2017-10-30 PRRI
25 50 35 2017-10-24 FOX
26 40 33 2017-10-24 YouGov/Economist
27 36 28 2017-10-24 Ipsos/Reuters
28 42 36 2017-10-23 Politico/Morning Consult
29 41 33 2017-10-16 YouGov/Economist
30 42 37 2017-10-16 Politico/Morning Consult
31 54 38 2017-10-15 CNN
32 40 33 2017-10-10 YouGov/Economist
33 43 37 2017-10-09 Politico/Morning Consult
34 39 32 2017-10-03 YouGov/Economist
35 41 39 2017-10-01 Politico/Morning Consult
36 40 34 2017-09-26 YouGov/Economist
37 48 37 2017-09-25 PPP (D)
38 42 38 2017-09-24 Politico/Morning Consult
39 49 43 2017-09-20 CNN
40 39 33 2017-09-19 YouGov/Economist
41 43 37 2017-09-17 Politico/Morning Consult
42 40 31 2017-09-12 YouGov/Economist
43 40 37 2017-09-11 Politico/Morning Consult
44 39 33 2017-09-05 YouGov/Economist
45 43 38 2017-09-03 Politico/Morning Consult
46 40 32 2017-08-29 YouGov/Economist
47 40 36 2017-08-28 Politico/Morning Consult
48 39 33 2017-08-22 YouGov/Economist
49 49 35 2017-08-21 PPP (D)
50 41 36 2017-08-19 Politico/Morning Consult
51 46 40 2017-08-17 GWU/Battleground
52 41 33 2017-08-15 YouGov/Economist
53 40 38 2017-08-14 Politico/Morning Consult
54 47 40 2017-08-12 Marist
55 39 34 2017-08-08 YouGov/Economist
56 51 42 2017-08-06 CNN
57 43 36 2017-08-06 Politico/Morning Consult
58 39 34 2017-08-01 YouGov/Economist
59 44 37 2017-07-29 Politico/Morning Consult
60 40 34 2017-07-25 YouGov/Economist
61 40 40 2017-07-24 Politico/Morning Consult
62 40 34 2017-07-18 YouGov/Economist
63 50 40 2017-07-17 PPP (D)
64 42 40 2017-07-15 Politico/Morning Consult
65 39 32 2017-07-11 YouGov/Economist
66 43 40 2017-07-09 Politico/Morning Consult
67 37 35 2017-07-04 YouGov/Economist
68 43 39 2017-06-30 Politico/Morning Consult
69 47 41 2017-06-27 FOX
70 41 35 2017-06-27 YouGov/Economist
71 48 38 2017-06-25 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist
72 42 40 2017-06-24 Politico/Morning Consult
73 38 35 2017-06-20 YouGov/Economist
74 43 37 2017-06-19 Politico/Morning Consult
75 38 36 2017-06-13 YouGov/Economist
76 42 39 2017-06-12 Politico/Morning Consult
77 50 40 2017-06-11 PPP (D)
78 41 37 2017-06-06 YouGov/Economist
79 42 39 2017-06-02 Politico/Morning Consult
80 39 33 2017-05-30 YouGov/Economist
81 43 39 2017-05-30 Politico/Morning Consult
82 38 36 2017-05-23 YouGov/Economist
83 41 37 2017-05-22 Politico/Morning Consult
84 40 33 2017-05-16 YouGov/Economist
85 42 35 2017-05-14 Politico/Morning Consult
86 49 38 2017-05-14 PPP (D)
87 42 37 2017-05-11 Politico/Morning Consult
88 40 35 2017-05-09 YouGov/Economist
89 42 36 2017-05-06 Politico/Morning Consult
90 38 35 2017-05-02 YouGov/Economist
91 41 41 2017-04-30 Politico/Morning Consult
92 47 42 2017-04-25 FOX
93 39 34 2017-04-25 YouGov/Economist
94 50 41 2017-04-25 CNN
95 40 44 2017-04-24 Politico/Morning Consult
96 47 42 2017-04-20 Gravis Marketing/Orlando Political Observer
97 47 41 2017-04-18 PPP (D)
98 38 32 2017-04-18 YouGov/Economist
99 40 40 2017-04-15 Politico/Morning Consult
100 45 38 2017-04-12 McClatchy/Marist
101 40 37 2017-04-11 YouGov/Economist
102 43 40 2017-04-09 Politico/Morning Consult
103 41 39 2017-04-01 Politico/Morning Consult
104 48 43 2017-03-28 PPP (D)
105 47 38 2017-03-27 McClatchy/Marist
106 46 41 2017-03-12 PPP (D)
107 46 43 2017-02-22 PPP (D)
108 49 41 2017-02-08 PPP (D)
109 45 42 2017-01-31 PPP (D)
110 48 40 2017-01-24 PPP (D)


But, because Democrats are clustered in cities and face harsh gerrymanders, they aren’t expected to win an equivalent share of the seats in Congress. What does electoral geography tell us about the actual outcome?


Seat Forecast