Last updated August 20, 2017 07:50:12 PM

Who’s ahead in the race for control of the United States House of Representatives?


Polling Average


The The Democratic Party is ahead in generic ballot polls, earning 53.5% of the two-party vote share on average.

Table 1: Polls of the Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican Date Pollster
55.4 44.6 2017-08-15 YouGov/Economist
51.3 48.7 2017-08-14 Politico/Morning Consult
54.0 46.0 2017-08-12 Marist
53.4 46.6 2017-08-08 YouGov/Economist
54.8 45.2 2017-08-06 CNN
54.4 45.6 2017-08-06 Politico/Morning Consult
53.4 46.6 2017-08-01 YouGov/Economist
54.3 45.7 2017-07-29 Politico/Morning Consult
54.1 45.9 2017-07-25 YouGov/Economist
50.0 50.0 2017-07-24 Politico/Morning Consult
54.1 45.9 2017-07-18 YouGov/Economist
55.6 44.4 2017-07-17 PPP (D)
51.2 48.8 2017-07-15 Politico/Morning Consult
54.9 45.1 2017-07-11 YouGov/Economist
51.8 48.2 2017-07-09 Politico/Morning Consult
51.4 48.6 2017-07-04 YouGov/Economist
52.4 47.6 2017-06-30 Politico/Morning Consult
53.4 46.6 2017-06-27 FOX
53.9 46.1 2017-06-27 YouGov/Economist
55.8 44.2 2017-06-25 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist
51.2 48.8 2017-06-24 Politico/Morning Consult
52.1 47.9 2017-06-20 YouGov/Economist
53.8 46.2 2017-06-19 Politico/Morning Consult
51.4 48.6 2017-06-13 YouGov/Economist
51.9 48.1 2017-06-12 Politico/Morning Consult
55.6 44.4 2017-06-11 PPP (D)
52.6 47.4 2017-06-06 YouGov/Economist
51.9 48.1 2017-06-02 Politico/Morning Consult
54.2 45.8 2017-05-30 YouGov/Economist
52.4 47.6 2017-05-30 Politico/Morning Consult
51.4 48.6 2017-05-23 YouGov/Economist
52.6 47.4 2017-05-22 Politico/Morning Consult
54.8 45.2 2017-05-16 YouGov/Economist
54.5 45.5 2017-05-14 Politico/Morning Consult
56.3 43.7 2017-05-14 PPP (D)
53.2 46.8 2017-05-11 Politico/Morning Consult
53.3 46.7 2017-05-09 YouGov/Economist
53.8 46.2 2017-05-06 Politico/Morning Consult
52.1 47.9 2017-05-02 YouGov/Economist
50.0 50.0 2017-04-30 Politico/Morning Consult
52.8 47.2 2017-04-25 FOX
53.4 46.6 2017-04-25 YouGov/Economist
54.9 45.1 2017-04-25 CNN
47.6 52.4 2017-04-24 Politico/Morning Consult
52.8 47.2 2017-04-20 Gravis Marketing/Orlando Political Observer
53.4 46.6 2017-04-18 PPP (D)
54.3 45.7 2017-04-18 YouGov/Economist
50.0 50.0 2017-04-15 Politico/Morning Consult
54.2 45.8 2017-04-12 McClatchy/Marist
51.9 48.1 2017-04-11 YouGov/Economist
51.8 48.2 2017-04-09 Politico/Morning Consult
51.2 48.8 2017-04-01 Politico/Morning Consult
52.7 47.3 2017-03-28 PPP (D)
55.3 44.7 2017-03-27 McClatchy/Marist
52.9 47.1 2017-03-12 PPP (D)
51.7 48.3 2017-02-22 PPP (D)
54.4 45.6 2017-02-08 PPP (D)
51.7 48.3 2017-01-31 PPP (D)
54.5 45.5 2017-01-24 PPP (D)

But, because Democrats are clustered in cities and face harsh gerrymanders, they aren’t expected to win an equivalent share of the seats in Congress. What do the polls tell us about the actual outcome?


Seat Projections


Democrats are forecast to pick up 10 seats on November 6, 2018. Republicans will gain 1 seat, for a net gain of 9 seats for the Democratic Party.

Table 2: Seats Flipping GOP to Democrat
District Dem 2016 (%) Clinton (%) Forecast Dem 2018 (%) Dem Win Prob.
CA-10 48.3 51.6 51.4 57.9
CA-21 43.3 58.2 51.5 58.5
CA-25 46.9 53.6 51.5 58.5
CA-49 49.7 54.0 53.0 66.6
CO-06 45.6 54.9 51.3 57.4
FL-26 43.7 58.3 51.8 60.1
FL-27 45.1 60.1 63.0 96.8
MN-03 43.1 55.1 50.2 51.1
TX-23 49.3 51.8 51.9 60.7
VA-10 47.1 55.3 52.2 62.3


Projections for Every Seat

Table 3: All House Seat Forecasts
District Dem 2016 (%) Clinton (%) Forecast Dem 2018 (%) Dem Win Prob.
AK-AL 41.7 41.6 44.3 20.8
AL-01 0.0 34.9 21.3 0.0
AL-02 45.4 33.7 42.9 15.5
AL-03 33.0 33.1 36.7 2.9
AL-04 0.0 17.8 14.6 0.0
AL-05 33.2 32.6 36.6 2.8
AL-06 25.4 26.9 30.6 0.3
AL-07 100.0 70.9 90.4 100.0
AR-01 0.0 31.7 20.1 0.0
AR-02 38.7 44.3 43.9 19.2
AR-03 0.0 33.0 20.6 0.0
AR-04 0.0 32.8 20.5 0.0
AZ-01 53.9 49.4 60.5 93.3
AZ-02 43.0 52.6 49.2 45.5
AZ-03 100.0 65.8 88.4 100.0
AZ-04 28.5 28.9 32.9 0.7
AZ-05 35.9 38.8 39.4 6.5
AZ-06 37.9 44.7 43.6 18.0
AZ-07 75.3 76.1 80.4 100.0
AZ-08 0.0 38.9 22.9 0.0
AZ-09 61.0 58.8 66.7 99.1
CA-01 40.9 39.4 43.0 15.9
CA-02 76.9 74.8 80.7 100.0
CA-03 59.4 56.7 65.1 98.5
CA-04 37.3 42.1 42.3 13.6
CA-05 76.9 74.0 80.4 100.0
CA-06 75.4 73.9 79.6 100.0
CA-07 51.2 56.1 60.9 94.0
CA-08 37.7 42.0 42.5 14.2
CA-09 57.4 59.8 65.4 98.6
CA-10 48.3 51.6 51.4 57.9
CA-11 72.1 75.9 78.8 100.0
CA-12 100.0 90.8 98.2 100.0
CA-13 90.8 92.8 94.5 100.0
CA-14 80.9 80.9 85.0 100.0
CA-15 73.8 74.3 79.0 100.0
CA-16 58.0 61.4 66.3 99.0
CA-17 100.0 78.3 94.2 100.0
CA-18 71.1 78.4 79.3 100.0
CA-19 73.9 77.2 80.2 100.0
CA-20 70.8 75.2 78.8 100.0
CA-21 43.3 58.2 51.5 58.5
CA-22 32.4 45.0 41.0 9.9
CA-23 30.8 38.3 37.7 3.9
CA-24 53.4 60.8 64.7 98.2
CA-25 46.9 53.6 51.5 58.5
CA-26 60.4 61.7 67.5 99.4
CA-27 67.4 69.9 74.2 100.0
CA-28 78.0 76.4 81.9 100.0
CA-29 100.0 82.2 94.9 100.0
CA-30 72.6 72.9 77.9 100.0
CA-31 56.1 61.2 65.3 98.6
CA-32 100.0 70.6 90.3 100.0
CA-33 66.4 71.9 74.5 100.0
CA-34 100.0 88.7 97.4 100.0
CA-35 72.4 71.6 77.2 100.0
CA-36 62.1 54.6 65.6 98.7
CA-37 100.0 89.9 97.9 100.0
CA-38 70.5 71.0 76.1 100.0
CA-39 42.8 54.6 49.9 49.4
CA-40 100.0 86.5 96.5 100.0
CA-41 65.0 64.8 71.0 99.9
CA-42 41.2 43.7 44.8 22.9
CA-43 76.1 82.4 83.3 100.0
CA-44 100.0 87.1 97.7 100.0
CA-45 41.4 52.9 48.5 41.5
CA-46 100.0 70.4 91.2 100.0
CA-47 63.7 66.9 71.2 99.9
CA-48 41.7 50.9 47.9 38.2
CA-49 49.7 54.0 53.0 66.6
CA-50 36.5 42.0 41.9 12.4
CA-51 72.8 75.9 79.1 100.0
CA-52 56.5 62.0 65.8 98.8
CA-53 67.0 68.5 73.4 100.0
CO-01 71.0 74.8 77.9 100.0
CO-02 60.5 61.7 64.5 98.1
CO-03 42.5 43.5 45.4 25.6
CO-04 33.3 37.4 38.5 5.0
CO-05 33.2 36.7 38.2 4.6
CO-06 45.6 54.9 51.3 57.4
CO-07 58.1 56.6 59.6 91.5
CT-01 65.5 62.1 70.2 99.8
CT-02 65.2 51.5 65.9 98.8
CT-03 69.0 58.0 70.3 99.8
CT-04 59.9 62.0 67.4 99.4
CT-05 58.0 52.1 62.6 96.4
DE-AL 57.5 56.0 64.9 98.3
FL-01 30.9 29.5 33.3 0.9
FL-02 30.8 31.6 34.1 1.2
FL-03 41.3 41.7 44.1 20.0
FL-04 28.2 35.4 34.4 1.3
FL-05 64.2 63.1 70.9 99.9
FL-06 41.4 41.2 44.0 19.6
FL-07 51.5 53.8 61.1 94.4
FL-08 34.0 39.2 39.6 6.9
FL-09 57.5 56.7 65.1 98.5
FL-10 64.9 63.9 71.5 99.9
FL-11 32.6 33.4 36.6 2.8
FL-12 31.4 40.3 38.7 5.3
FL-13 51.9 51.7 60.4 93.1
FL-14 61.8 59.5 67.4 99.4
FL-15 42.5 44.8 45.9 27.9
FL-16 40.2 44.5 44.6 22.0
FL-17 35.6 36.0 39.1 6.0
FL-18 44.6 45.3 46.2 29.4
FL-19 34.1 38.6 38.5 5.0
FL-20 80.3 81.6 85.0 100.0
FL-21 64.1 60.0 68.7 99.6
FL-22 58.9 58.1 65.4 98.6
FL-23 58.3 63.4 67.2 99.3
FL-24 100.0 84.4 95.7 100.0
FL-25 37.6 49.1 45.2 24.6
FL-26 43.7 58.3 51.8 60.1
FL-27 45.1 60.1 63.0 96.8
GA-01 0.0 42.0 24.1 0.0
GA-02 61.2 56.0 65.7 98.8
GA-03 31.7 33.8 35.4 1.9
GA-04 75.7 77.2 81.1 100.0
GA-05 84.4 87.7 89.4 100.0
GA-06 38.3 49.2 45.6 26.5
GA-07 39.6 46.7 45.2 24.6
GA-08 32.4 35.2 37.2 3.4
GA-09 0.0 19.9 15.5 0.0
GA-10 0.0 36.9 22.1 0.0
GA-11 32.6 36.9 38.0 4.3
GA-12 38.4 41.7 42.7 14.9
GA-13 100.0 72.7 91.1 100.0
GA-14 0.0 22.8 16.6 0.0
HI-01 76.0 67.4 77.4 100.0
HI-02 81.2 67.5 79.9 100.0
IA-01 46.2 48.1 49.0 44.3
IA-02 53.8 47.8 58.9 89.8
IA-03 42.6 48.1 47.3 35.0
IA-04 38.7 35.5 40.4 8.5
ID-01 31.8 28.5 32.3 0.6
ID-02 31.9 35.3 37.0 3.2
IL-01 74.1 77.9 80.5 100.0
IL-02 79.8 80.3 84.3 100.0
IL-03 100.0 58.0 85.4 100.0
IL-04 100.0 86.1 96.4 100.0
IL-05 71.1 74.7 77.9 100.0
IL-06 40.8 53.7 48.6 42.1
IL-07 84.2 90.5 90.4 100.0
IL-08 58.3 61.5 67.4 99.4
IL-09 66.5 73.8 75.2 100.0
IL-10 52.6 65.5 66.2 99.0
IL-11 60.4 62.5 67.8 99.5
IL-12 42.2 42.2 44.8 22.9
IL-13 40.3 47.1 45.7 27.0
IL-14 40.7 47.9 46.2 29.4
IL-15 0.0 25.7 17.7 0.0
IL-16 0.0 40.8 23.7 0.0
IL-17 60.3 49.6 62.8 96.6
IL-18 27.9 35.5 35.1 1.7
IN-01 100.0 56.6 84.8 100.0
IN-02 38.4 37.8 41.2 10.4
IN-03 24.7 31.6 31.1 0.3
IN-04 32.1 32.0 35.6 2.0
IN-05 35.8 43.8 42.2 13.3
IN-06 27.9 28.8 32.6 0.6
IN-07 62.7 62.0 68.8 99.6
IN-08 33.2 32.4 36.5 2.7
IN-09 42.8 35.9 41.6 11.5
KS-01 0.0 26.0 16.9 0.0
KS-02 34.9 40.1 43.6 18.0
KS-03 44.2 50.6 49.0 44.3
KS-04 32.8 35.4 37.5 3.7
KY-01 27.3 24.8 30.7 0.3
KY-02 0.0 29.0 19.0 0.0
KY-03 63.5 57.9 67.6 99.4
KY-04 28.7 31.0 33.8 1.0
KY-05 0.0 18.0 14.7 0.0
KY-06 38.9 41.9 43.0 15.9
LA-01 20.7 28.0 28.7 0.1
LA-02 100.0 77.1 92.8 100.0
LA-03 17.8 30.3 27.3 0.1
LA-04 28.8 37.7 35.5 1.9
LA-05 0.0 34.9 21.3 0.0
LA-06 24.7 32.4 32.4 0.6
MA-01 100.0 61.0 86.6 100.0
MA-02 100.0 60.4 86.3 100.0
MA-03 68.8 62.2 65.0 98.4
MA-04 70.2 62.8 72.8 99.9
MA-05 100.0 72.9 91.2 100.0
MA-06 100.0 59.5 86.0 100.0
MA-07 100.0 87.6 97.0 100.0
MA-08 72.5 63.7 74.2 100.0
MA-09 62.4 55.7 66.2 99.0
MD-01 29.9 35.1 36.0 2.3
MD-02 65.2 62.8 70.3 99.8
MD-03 65.1 66.2 71.6 99.9
MD-04 77.6 80.2 84.1 100.0
MD-05 69.6 66.1 73.8 100.0
MD-06 58.3 58.4 61.4 94.8
MD-07 77.5 78.6 82.5 100.0
MD-08 63.9 67.6 72.5 99.9
ME-01 58.1 57.9 64.9 98.3
ME-02 45.2 44.4 47.1 33.9
MI-01 42.2 38.7 42.5 14.2
MI-02 34.2 40.6 40.2 8.1
MI-03 38.7 45.0 44.1 20.0
MI-04 34.3 36.8 38.8 5.5
MI-05 63.6 52.2 65.4 98.6
MI-06 38.3 45.5 44.1 20.0
MI-07 42.1 41.0 44.2 20.4
MI-08 41.2 46.5 45.9 27.9
MI-09 60.8 54.1 64.7 98.2
MI-10 33.9 33.1 36.2 2.4
MI-11 43.2 47.7 47.4 35.5
MI-12 68.7 63.8 72.4 99.9
MI-13 83.1 81.3 86.3 100.0
MI-14 80.8 81.2 85.1 100.0
MN-01 50.4 41.9 45.3 25.1
MN-02 49.0 49.3 49.9 49.4
MN-03 43.1 55.1 50.2 51.1
MN-04 62.7 66.8 70.6 99.8
MN-05 75.6 79.9 82.1 100.0
MN-06 34.3 36.0 38.5 5.0
MN-07 52.6 33.4 52.7 65.0
MN-08 50.3 41.6 54.8 75.4
MO-01 79.1 80.4 83.9 100.0
MO-02 39.2 44.6 44.2 20.4
MO-03 29.2 29.5 33.4 0.9
MO-04 29.1 31.0 34.0 1.1
MO-05 60.6 57.1 65.9 98.8
MO-06 29.5 33.4 35.1 1.7
MO-07 28.9 26.0 31.9 0.5
MO-08 23.4 21.8 27.6 0.1
MS-01 28.9 33.1 34.7 1.4
MS-02 69.8 64.4 73.2 100.0
MS-03 31.5 37.5 37.7 3.9
MS-04 30.0 28.9 33.6 1.0
MT-AL 41.9 38.9 43.3 16.9
NC-01 70.3 68.9 75.2 100.0
NC-02 43.3 45.0 46.4 30.4
NC-03 32.8 37.9 38.5 5.0
NC-04 68.2 70.7 74.9 100.0
NC-05 41.6 41.0 44.0 19.6
NC-06 40.8 42.5 44.2 20.4
NC-07 39.1 40.9 42.7 14.9
NC-08 41.2 42.3 44.3 20.8
NC-09 41.8 44.0 45.3 25.1
NC-10 36.9 37.4 40.3 8.3
NC-11 35.9 34.9 38.8 5.5
NC-12 67.0 70.7 74.3 100.0
NC-13 43.9 45.2 45.8 27.4
ND-AL 25.5 30.2 31.9 0.5
NE-01 30.5 38.6 37.6 3.8
NE-02 49.4 48.8 49.9 49.4
NE-03 0.0 21.1 15.9 0.0
NH-01 50.8 49.2 58.9 89.8
NH-02 52.3 51.3 59.5 91.3
NJ-01 62.0 62.7 68.7 99.6
NJ-02 38.6 47.6 45.1 24.2
NJ-03 39.6 46.8 45.3 25.1
NJ-04 34.5 42.4 41.0 9.9
NJ-05 52.2 49.4 59.7 91.7
NJ-06 64.6 58.1 68.2 99.5
NJ-07 44.3 50.6 49.0 44.3
NJ-08 80.6 77.9 83.7 100.0
NJ-09 71.3 66.0 74.6 100.0
NJ-10 87.8 86.9 90.8 100.0
NJ-11 40.1 49.5 46.6 31.4
NJ-12 66.3 67.1 72.5 99.9
NM-01 65.1 59.5 62.4 96.2
NM-02 37.2 44.3 47.7 37.1
NM-03 62.4 58.5 67.3 99.3
NV-01 68.2 65.4 72.8 99.9
NV-02 38.8 43.3 43.5 17.7
NV-03 50.6 49.5 52.7 65.0
NV-04 52.2 52.6 60.9 94.0
NY-01 41.0 43.6 44.7 22.4
NY-02 37.5 45.3 43.7 18.4
NY-03 52.8 53.1 61.4 94.8
NY-04 59.6 54.9 64.5 98.1
NY-05 86.8 87.1 90.3 100.0
NY-06 73.0 67.0 75.7 100.0
NY-07 90.8 89.3 93.1 100.0
NY-08 100.0 86.2 96.4 100.0
NY-09 100.0 85.3 96.1 100.0
NY-10 78.1 80.6 83.6 100.0
NY-11 37.4 45.0 43.5 17.7
NY-12 83.2 86.1 88.2 100.0
NY-13 92.8 94.5 97.1 100.0
NY-14 82.9 79.7 85.5 100.0
NY-15 96.5 95.0 98.1 100.0
NY-16 100.0 76.9 92.8 100.0
NY-17 100.0 60.4 86.3 100.0
NY-18 55.6 49.0 60.2 92.7
NY-19 45.7 46.1 47.1 33.9
NY-20 67.9 57.1 69.4 99.7
NY-21 31.6 42.6 39.7 7.1
NY-22 46.9 41.8 45.9 27.9
NY-23 42.4 42.1 44.8 22.9
NY-24 39.4 51.9 47.2 34.5
NY-25 56.2 58.7 64.3 97.9
NY-26 74.6 60.3 73.9 100.0
NY-27 32.8 37.1 38.2 4.6
OH-01 40.8 46.6 45.8 27.4
OH-02 33.5 41.6 40.3 8.3
OH-03 68.6 70.1 74.8 100.0
OH-04 32.0 32.3 35.9 2.2
OH-05 29.1 36.7 36.2 2.4
OH-06 29.3 27.8 32.8 0.7
OH-07 31.2 34.4 36.3 2.5
OH-08 28.2 32.0 33.9 1.1
OH-09 68.7 61.7 71.6 99.9
OH-10 33.8 46.2 42.2 13.3
OH-11 80.3 82.6 85.4 100.0
OH-12 30.9 44.1 40.0 7.7
OH-13 67.7 53.4 67.9 99.5
OH-14 37.4 44.0 43.1 16.2
OH-15 33.8 41.9 40.5 8.7
OH-16 34.7 41.3 44.7 22.4
OK-01 0.0 34.8 38.3 4.7
OK-02 24.7 23.8 29.0 0.1
OK-03 21.7 22.1 26.9 0.0
OK-04 27.3 30.1 32.7 0.7
OK-05 39.2 42.8 43.5 17.7
OR-01 61.7 62.4 68.5 99.6
OR-02 28.1 39.2 36.7 2.9
OR-03 100.0 75.9 92.4 100.0
OR-04 58.3 50.1 62.0 95.7
OR-05 55.4 52.3 61.4 94.8
PA-01 82.2 81.4 85.9 100.0
PA-02 90.2 92.2 94.0 100.0
PA-03 0.0 36.4 21.9 0.0
PA-04 33.9 38.8 39.3 6.3
PA-05 32.8 35.0 37.3 3.5
PA-06 42.7 50.3 48.1 39.3
PA-07 40.5 51.2 47.4 35.5
PA-08 45.5 49.9 48.4 41.0
PA-09 36.7 28.1 36.5 2.7
PA-10 29.8 31.4 34.5 1.3
PA-11 36.3 37.6 40.1 7.9
PA-12 38.2 39.2 41.6 11.5
PA-13 100.0 67.3 89.0 100.0
PA-14 74.4 68.4 77.0 100.0
PA-15 39.4 46.0 44.9 23.3
PA-16 44.4 46.4 46.5 30.9
PA-17 53.8 44.8 57.7 86.4
PA-18 0.0 39.9 23.3 0.0
RI-01 64.8 63.4 70.3 99.8
RI-02 65.4 53.7 66.9 99.2
SC-01 38.6 43.0 43.3 16.9
SC-02 37.4 40.7 41.8 12.1
SC-03 27.1 30.2 32.7 0.7
SC-04 31.6 36.4 37.3 3.5
SC-05 39.5 40.4 42.7 14.9
SC-06 71.8 68.8 75.8 100.0
SC-07 38.9 40.3 42.4 13.9
SD-AL 35.9 34.0 37.6 3.8
TN-01 16.4 20.4 23.7 0.0
TN-02 24.4 31.3 35.0 1.6
TN-03 30.3 31.6 34.8 1.5
TN-04 35.0 28.5 35.9 2.2
TN-05 62.6 59.7 67.8 99.5
TN-06 23.5 24.6 28.5 0.1
TN-07 24.6 29.5 31.2 0.4
TN-08 26.7 31.6 32.1 0.5
TN-09 80.6 79.7 84.4 100.0
TX-01 24.6 25.9 29.8 0.2
TX-02 37.3 45.1 43.5 17.7
TX-03 36.1 42.6 45.9 27.9
TX-04 0.0 22.4 16.5 0.0
TX-05 0.0 35.4 21.5 0.0
TX-06 40.1 43.6 44.2 20.4
TX-07 43.8 50.7 48.8 43.2
TX-08 0.0 24.7 17.4 0.0
TX-09 80.6 81.5 85.1 100.0
TX-10 40.1 45.2 44.9 23.3
TX-11 0.0 19.7 15.4 0.0
TX-12 27.9 34.2 34.7 1.4
TX-13 0.0 17.5 14.5 0.0
TX-14 38.1 39.8 41.8 12.1
TX-15 60.3 58.6 67.2 99.3
TX-16 100.0 71.4 74.0 100.0
TX-17 36.7 40.8 41.5 11.2
TX-18 75.7 79.3 81.9 100.0
TX-19 0.0 24.5 16.3 0.0
TX-20 100.0 64.0 87.7 100.0
TX-21 39.0 44.7 44.2 20.4
TX-22 40.5 45.9 45.4 25.6
TX-23 49.3 51.8 51.9 60.7
TX-24 41.2 46.7 46.0 28.4
TX-25 39.3 42.2 43.3 16.9
TX-26 30.8 36.1 36.8 3.0
TX-27 38.3 37.8 41.1 10.2
TX-28 67.9 60.2 70.6 99.8
TX-29 75.1 73.7 79.4 100.0
TX-30 84.4 81.2 86.9 100.0
TX-31 38.5 43.3 43.3 16.9
TX-32 0.0 51.0 27.6 0.1
TX-33 73.7 75.5 79.4 100.0
TX-34 62.7 61.1 68.4 99.6
TX-35 66.6 67.8 72.9 99.9
TX-36 0.0 25.9 17.8 0.0
UT-01 28.6 31.1 33.8 1.0
UT-02 35.5 41.0 41.0 9.9
UT-03 26.5 33.0 33.5 0.9
UT-04 43.4 45.3 46.5 30.9
VA-01 37.9 43.5 43.1 16.2
VA-02 38.6 48.2 44.4 21.2
VA-03 66.8 66.6 72.6 99.9
VA-04 57.9 61.3 67.1 99.3
VA-05 41.7 44.2 44.3 20.8
VA-06 33.2 36.9 38.3 4.7
VA-07 42.3 46.6 46.5 30.9
VA-08 71.5 77.9 79.3 100.0
VA-09 29.2 28.4 33.0 0.8
VA-10 47.1 55.3 52.2 62.3
VA-11 100.0 70.9 90.4 100.0
VT-AL 100.0 65.2 88.2 100.0
WA-01 55.4 58.9 64.0 97.7
WA-02 64.0 62.1 69.4 99.7
WA-03 38.2 46.0 44.3 20.8
WA-04 0.0 37.7 22.4 0.0
WA-05 40.4 42.8 44.1 20.0
WA-06 61.5 56.7 66.1 98.9
WA-07 100.0 87.1 97.7 100.0
WA-08 39.8 51.6 47.2 34.5
WA-09 72.9 75.2 78.9 100.0
WA-10 58.7 56.2 64.6 98.1
WI-01 31.8 44.6 40.6 9.0
WI-02 68.8 69.4 74.6 100.0
WI-03 100.0 47.6 81.3 100.0
WI-04 100.0 77.2 92.9 100.0
WI-05 30.5 39.4 37.9 4.2
WI-06 39.5 41.1 43.0 15.9
WI-07 38.3 39.2 41.7 11.8
WI-08 37.3 40.7 40.9 9.7
WV-01 31.0 28.0 33.7 1.0
WV-02 41.8 30.9 40.1 7.9
WV-03 26.1 24.3 28.2 0.1
WY-AL 32.6 24.3 32.1 0.5


Chance of Winning


Of course, there is error in our forecasts — measurable error. We can account for that error by simulating the election thousands of times, asking the computer each time to pick random error for national polling that is based on error from past predictions. Then for each “election’s” national error we also generate an error for each congressional district, basing each of those 435 individual errors on what the error is in districts that have performed the same in the past. (So, for example, if a simulated error adds 4% for the Democratic candidate in a district that voted for Romney and Trump by 5%, the error would around 4% for other districts that voted similarly. This is called correlated random error.)

Here’s the distribution of total number of Democratic House seats after engaging in that exercise:

We can take all of those simulations of Democratic seat shares and further ask “what is the chance that Democrats win the election, given the chance that we Democrats or Republicans beat expectations?”

Democrats have a 23.4 percent chance of winning a House majority on November 6th, 2018.



FAQ


Note: This page will continually be updated, both with new data and new features, from now until Election Day! Come back regularly for a different look at the 2018 midterm race. In other words, this is a draft that will get better every day, so if you’re missing something let me know.


Data


Polls

Seat forecasts

Simulated seat shares

Polls, vote projections, seat shares and win probabilities over time