2018 Midterms

House 2018 Model Talk: Regression versus Simulation

"All models are wrong, but some are useful."

G. Elliott Morris

9 minute read

Up until now, my forecast of the 2018 House midterms has been pretty grim for Democrats. It has noted a 7-8 percentage point Democratic advantage in the generic ballot and calculated a 32% chance of Democrats winning control of the House majority. It has come to that conclusion via a mix of national polls, district-level predictions, and simulations designed to parameterize the error in our measurement. Today, I made an adjustment to that model, and when I ran the computer code it spit out the following:

Four Questions about Democrats Taking Back The House

The House map provides a huge upside for Democrats --- if they can get there. There are several paths to a Democratic House, and my model can help us find them.

G. Elliott Morris

24 minute read

Admittedly, my forecast for the 2018 House elections looks pretty pessimistic for the Democrats. The media has been quick to pick up on this fact, but they’re glossing over something important: Despite a grim forecast seat share, Democrats have an outside chance of winning the majority — and a landslide election. I talked through this “skew” of expectations in a twitter thread the other day: Let’s talk more about what happens if we’re wrong about the House generic ballot, according to my 2018 model.

How am I Forecasting the 2018 House Midterm Election?

Combining National and Local Electoral Preferences to Forecast the 2018 US House Midterms

G. Elliott Morris

17 minute read

It has been roughly two weeks since I launched my forecasting model for the 2018 midterm elections to the House of Representatives. Current generic ballot polling gives Democrats a 7.2 percentage point edge in the national popular vote, roughly where it has been since a month after Donald Trump became president. The forecasting model estimates, contrary to what a 7.2% lead would imply, that Democrats have just a 22% chance of winning the House majority on November 6, 2018.

Georgia 6 Could Come Down to All But A Coin Toss

Data points to a near-photo-finish for Jon Ossoff (D) and Karen Handel (R) in the Georgia 06 special election. They have almost equal odds of victory.

G. Elliott Morris

10 minute read

Note1 This article was written in conjunction with Ryan Matsumoto, a contributor at FiveThirtyEight, Developer Programs Engineer at Google and Stanford Alum. Follow him on Twitter @ryanmatsumoto1. Note2 A previous version of this article had Ossoff up 1.3% with 57% odds. Recent polling data had use revise those estimates to 0.6% and 53%, respectively. In the 2016 Iowa Democratic Primary Hillary Clinton won at least six precincts by way of a coin toss.

Democrats are Voting Much More than Last Time Around

But will these repeated Democratic waves turn into a Democratic tide?

G. Elliott Morris

4 minute read

You can’t win an election without turning out voters, and boy, are Democrats taking that to heart. Americans in special and primary elections all over the country are turning out for elections at rates unseen in the most recent midterm cycles. We already know that Democrats are overperforming expectations for electoral performance, but raw votes in recent elections offer us some more insight into just how energized their base is.

Montana Election Bolsters Predictions of a Large "Democratic Wave"

Democrats performed better than expected in Montana's special election Thursday, suggesting a large "Democratic wave" is coming.

G. Elliott Morris

4 minute read

On Wednesday, May 24th, the Republican candidate for Montana’s at-large congressional district essentially beat (body slammed) a reporter. Then, on Thursday, Greg Gianforte also beat his Democratic opponent Rob Quist in the race for the district’s House seat. Gianforte’s victory cut against some pundits’ expectations of a Democratic pickup — granted, he did break a reporter’s glasses while otherwise being a flawed candidate — and squashed hopes of Democrats being able to flip deep red House seats.