European Politics

Polls and Approval Ratings Forecast a Tory Win, But Error Could Be Large

Polls and approval ratings give a 70 to 95 percent chance of a Tory win on Thursday, but a hung parliament is a real possibility.

G. Elliott Morris

11 minute read

This is the final installment of a five-part series on the 2017 United Kingdom general election. Read the other parts starting here. NOTE: unless otherwise specified, “victory” and “winning” are referred to here as winning the popular vote, not a parliamentary majority. For prognosticators, the best thing to come out of the 2015 UK election was perhaps this collection of photographs of dogs at polling places. Who doesn’t love a cute pup?

Labour Usually Falls Short Of Its Polling Average

Past Polling data shows that there is reason to be skeptical of Labour scoring a huge upset victory. But it is still possible.

G. Elliott Morris

5 minute read

This is the fourth of a five part series on the 2017 United Kingdom general election. Join us next Tuesday for a final update before the UK election! The United Kingdom General Election is (as my British friends tell me) absolutely barmy. Indeed, the contest is shaping up to be a crazy one. The Conservatives have fallen from a 16 percentage points polling lead in early April to just 5.

Approval Ratings Forecast Double-Digit Win for Theresa May's Conservatives

What approval ratings predict for the UK election that polling does not.

G. Elliott Morris

6 minute read

This is the third of a five part series on the 2017 United Kingdom general election. Join us every Tuesday until election day (June 8th) for parts 3 and 4!

This election cycle has seen a lot of commentary on the historic unpopularity of UK Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn. Sitting at a 27% approval rating, Corbyn is certainly an unpopular leader, but he’s not the only disliked party chief the United Kingdom has ever had.

UK Pollsters, Forecasters Looking for a Win in Snap Election

Will polls of the 2017 United Kingdom "snap" election be better than they were last time around?

George Elliott Morris

5 minute read

This is the second of a five part series on the 2017 United Kingdom general election. Join us every Tuesday until election day (June 8th) for parts 3, 4, and 5! I began the previous piece by saying “If polls are right, the United Kingdom’s Conservative Party is on a path to a big win in June’s general election.” This begs an obvious question: will the polls be right? (P.

The UK Election is Not Just About Brexit

Tories are headed for a big win in the UK election, but how much do voters really care about the Kingdom's decision to leave the EU?

G. Elliott Morris

4 minute read

This is the first in a five part series on the 2017 United Kingdom general election. Join us every Tuesday until election day (June 8th) for parts 2, 3, 4, and 5! If polls are right, the United Kingdom’s Conservative Party is on a path to a big win in June’s general election. The Tories currently have an 18 point lead in pre-election polling, one that is pretty likely to stick on election day.

What a Macron Win Means for French Parliament

This is what Macron's victory over Le Pen means for polls, pundits, and parliament.

G. Elliott Morris

7 minute read

This is the fifth and final part in a series on the 2017 France presidential election. Read part one here. Read part two here. Part three is here. Part four.

The outcome of Sunday’s France presidential election did not come as a surprise to careful election observers. But, it did (or should) surprise pollsters, who pegged Emmanuel Macron’s margin of victory somewhere around 22% in the final days of the election.

Le Pen Has Almost No Chance of Winning the France Election

If Emmanuel macron loses the race for president, it will be one of the biggest upsets in political history (well, for as far back as we have polling).

G. Elliott Morris

9 minute read

This is part four in a series on the 2017 France presidential election. Read part one here. Read part two here. Part three is here.

Unless she can pull of the biggest upset in France electoral history, Marine Le Pen is going to lose this Sunday’s vote for president of France to Emmanuel Macron. That has been true every day since April 18th of this year, when both party leaders finalized their candidacy for president.

In France, All Signs Point Towards a President Emmanuel Macron

Polls in France have a proven record of accuracy. Conventional wisdom is overestimating Marine Le Pen's chances of winning the France presidency.

G. Elliott Morris

9 minute read

This is part three in a series on the 2017 France presidential election. Read part one here. Read part two here. Part four.

With 100% of votes counted from the first round of France’s presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are headed to a runoff. Macron, a centrist who defeated Le Pen 24% to 21.3%, is making a lot of waves as the great unifier and the future of France.

(Almost) Anything Could Happen in Round One of the France Presidential Election

Round one of the France 2017 election is way too close to call. I use our election forecast to show you why.

G. Elliott Morris

10 minute read

This is part two in a series on the 2017 France presidential election. Read part one here. Read part three here.

The first stage of the 2017 France presidential election occurs on Sunday when voters will choose their candidates for the second, head-to-head stage of the contest. That will occur so long as no candidate receives over 50% of the vote — which, according to polls, is close to impossible.

What to Know About the France 2017 Election — Polls and Predictions

I discuss the current climate of the France presidential election, cover some theoretics of my forecast model, and deliver some food for thought.

G. Elliott Morris

7 minute read

This is part one in a series on the 2017 France presidential election. Read part two here.

Election day in France is nearly upon us, but before I write an article about our final forecast for the race I want to cover why that model is important. First, read this post. Then, check out my polling average and election forecast. After that, wait for Part 2 to be posted on Saturday!