- Originally published January 14, 2017

Who's Ahead in the France Presidential Election?


The race between Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon, and Marine Le Pen is heating up, but the election might not be as close (or unbalanced!) as you think. Here’s what a polling and statistics-based forecast of the election tell us, updated daily until the election on April 23rd, 2017 and May 7th, 2017. Click here to find out how this works.

Current Odds:


Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!)
First Round Polling Average: 23.77%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 73.82%
Second Round Win Probability: 70.81%
François Fillon (Les Republicains)
First Round Polling Average: 19.49%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 33.87%
Second Round Win Probability: 11.17%
Marine Le Pen (Front National)
First Round Polling Average: 22.38%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 63.16%
Second Round Win Probability: 4.03%
Benoît Hamon (Parti Socialiste)(Incumbent Party)
First Round Polling Average: 7.62%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 0.05%
Second Round Win Probability: 0.01%
Jean-Luc Melenchon (Unsubmissive France)
First Round Polling Average: 18.89%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 29.11%
Second Round Win Probability: 13.98%


Odds Over Time


Of course, today’s probabilities aren’t the only forecasts we can generate. Here’s a look at how the candidates’ chances have evolved over time. Although these oods look jumpy now, look for them to settle as we get closer to April 23 and May 7.

Chance of Winning or Getting Second Place in the First Round:


Chance of Winning the Second Round:


Poll Average


The win probabilities above are generated from each candidates’ projected performance in the first and second round of the election. Below are two histograms of possible outcomes for each party in both rounds:

Round 1:

A look at multi-party vote shares since Jan. 1,2017:

Range of Possible Outcomes:


Round 2:

A look at two-party vote shares since Jan. 1,2017:

Range of Possible Outcomes:

Scenarios


Round 1 Probabilities


Odds of Le Pen winning a plurality in round 1: 31.6%

Odds of Macron winning a plurality in round 1: 45.2%

Odds of Fillon winning a plurality in round 1: 12.7%

Odds of Mélenchon winning a plurality in round 1: 10.5%

Round 2 Probabilities


Macron versus Le Pen (41.2% chance of happening)
  Odds of Macron win: 96.8%

Fillon versus Le Pen (12%)
  Odds of Fillon win: 86.4%

Macron versus Fillon (17.7%)
  Odds of Macron win: 99%

Melenchon versus Le Pen (10%)
  Odds of Melenchon win: 89.3%

Macron versus Melenchon (14.9%)
  Odds of Macron win: 90%

Melenchon versus Fillon (4.2%)
  Odds of Fillon win: 15%



Polls

(Scroll left-to-right)
Pollster Date Sample SP-Cheminade LO-Arthaud NPA-Poutou FI-Melenchon PS-Hamon EM-Macron LR-Fillon DLF-Dupont-Aignan FN-Le Pen Resistons!-Lassalle UPR-Asselineau
Odoxa 2017-04-21 953 0.0 0.0 1.0 19.0 7.5 24.5 19.0 4.5 23.0 0.5 1.0
BVA 2017-04-21 1494 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.5 8.0 23.0 19.0 4.0 23.0 1.0 0.5
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-04-21 2823 0.5 0.5 1.5 18.5 7.0 24.5 19.5 4.0 22.5 1.0 1.0
Odoxa 2017-04-20 1433 0.0 0.5 1.5 19.5 6.0 25.0 19.5 4.0 22.0 1.0 1.0
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-04-20 2810 0.5 0.5 1.5 18.5 7.0 24.0 19.5 4.0 22.5 1.5 1.0
Ipsos 2017-04-20 1401 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.0 7.5 24.0 19.0 4.0 22.0 1.5 1.0
Elabe 2017-04-20 1445 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.5 7.0 24.0 20.0 4.0 21.5 1.0 1.0
OpinionWay 2017-04-20 2269 0.0 0.0 2.0 18.0 8.0 23.0 21.0 4.0 22.0 1.0 1.0
Harris 2017-04-20 962 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.0 7.5 24.5 20.0 4.0 21.0 1.0 1.0
BVA 2017-04-19 1427 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.0 8.5 24.0 19.0 3.5 23.0 0.5 0.5
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-04-19 2792 0.5 0.5 1.5 18.5 7.5 23.5 19.5 4.0 22.5 1.5 1.0
OpinionWay 2017-04-19 2394 0.0 0.0 2.0 19.0 8.0 23.0 20.0 4.0 22.0 1.0 1.0
Harris 2017-04-19 2812 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.0 7.5 25.0 19.0 4.0 22.0 1.0 0.5
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-04-18 2804 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.0 7.5 23.5 19.5 4.0 22.5 1.0 1.0
OpinionWay 2017-04-18 2417 0.0 0.0 2.0 19.0 8.0 23.0 20.0 4.0 22.0 1.0 1.0
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-04-17 2796 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.5 7.5 23.0 19.5 4.0 22.5 1.0 1.0
Ipsos 2017-04-17 8274 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.0 8.0 23.0 19.5 4.0 22.5 1.0 1.0
Elabe 2017-04-17 1438 0.5 0.5 2.0 18.0 8.0 24.0 19.5 4.0 23.0 0.5 0.5
OpinionWay 2017-04-17 2423 0.0 0.0 2.0 19.0 8.0 23.0 20.0 4.0 22.0 1.0 1.0
Kantar Sofres 2017-04-17 1530 0.5 0.5 2.0 18.0 8.0 24.0 18.5 4.0 23.0 1.0 1.0

Keep an eye out for updates to this page. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me via twitter or email.