- Originally published January 14, 2017

Who's Ahead in the France Presidential Election?


The 2017 France Presidential election is a consequential one; it may likely decide the future of the European Union, NATO, and France herself. But which path will the country take? Check here for frequent updates to Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron’s odds of victory. Click here to find out how this works.


Chances of Winning the France Presidential Election


Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!)
Second Round Polling Average: 61.16%
Second Round Win Probability: 97.016%
Marine Le Pen (Front National)
Second Round Polling Average: 38.84%
Second Round Win Probability: 2.984%


Here is how those chances have evolved over time.


Polling Average


In order to forecast the above probabilities, we first have to get a snapshot of where the candidates stand. We do so by averaging all the polls we can get our hands on, giving extra weight to the most recent surveys.


Polls


Pollster Date Sample Undecided Le Pen Macron
Ipsos 2017-05-05 5331 24 37.0 63.0
Harris 2017-05-05 2270 - 38.0 62.0
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-05-05 1861 24.5 37.0 63.0
Odoxa 2017-05-04 959 25 38.0 62.0
Ipsos 2017-05-04 1605 24 38.5 61.5
Elabe 2017-05-04 1009 32 38.0 62.0
OpinionWay 2017-05-04 2264 - 38.0 62.0
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-05-04 1400 25 39.0 61.0
Harris 2017-05-03 2349 - 39.0 61.0
OpinionWay 2017-05-03 2264 - 39.0 61.0
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-05-03 1405 26 40.0 60.0
BVA 2017-05-02 1435 20 40.0 60.0
OpinionWay 2017-05-02 1936 - 40.0 60.0
Elabe 2017-05-02 3817 32 41.0 59.0
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-05-02 1388 27 40.5 59.5
Ipsos 2017-05-01 8936 24 41.0 59.0
OpinionWay 2017-05-01 1764 - 40.0 60.0
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-05-01 1385 28 41.0 59.0
Kantar Sofres 2017-04-30 1539 - 41.0 59.0
OpinionWay 2017-04-30 1488 - 39.0 61.0

(More here)


Posts


Here are some of the posts I have written about the election so far, in serialized order.

Part 1: What to Know About the France 2017 Election — Polls and Predictions

Part 2: (Almost) Anything Could Happen in Round One of the France Presidential Election

Part 3: In France, All Signs Point Towards a President Emmanuel Macron

Part 4: Le Pen Has Almost No Chance of Winng The France Presidential Election







Archived Round 1 Probabilities:


The race between Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon, and Marine Le Pen is heating up, but the election might not be as close (or unbalanced!) as you think. Here’s what a polling and statistics-based forecast of the election tell us, updated daily until the election on April 23rd, 2017 and May 7th, 2017. Click here to find out how this works.

Current Odds:


Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!)
First Round Polling Average: 23.77%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 73.82%
Second Round Win Probability: 70.81%
François Fillon (Les Republicains)
First Round Polling Average: 19.49%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 33.87%
Second Round Win Probability: 11.17%
Marine Le Pen (Front National)
First Round Polling Average: 22.38%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 63.16%
Second Round Win Probability: 4.03%
Benoît Hamon (Parti Socialiste)(Incumbent Party)
First Round Polling Average: 7.62%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 0.05%
Second Round Win Probability: 0.01%
Jean-Luc Melenchon (Unsubmissive France)
First Round Polling Average: 18.89%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 29.11%
Second Round Win Probability: 13.98%


Odds Over Time


Of course, today’s probabilities aren’t the only forecasts we can generate. Here’s a look at how the candidates’ chances have evolved over time. Although these oods look jumpy now, look for them to settle as we get closer to April 23 and May 7.

Chance of Winning or Getting Second Place in the First Round:


Chance of Winning the Second Round:


Poll Average


The win probabilities above are generated from each candidates’ projected performance in the first and second round of the election. Below are two histograms of possible outcomes for each party in both rounds:

Round 1:

A look at multi-party vote shares since Jan. 1,2017:

Range of Possible Outcomes:


Round 2:

A look at two-party vote shares since Jan. 1,2017:

Range of Possible Outcomes:

Scenarios


Round 1 Probabilities


Odds of Le Pen winning a plurality in round 1: 31.6%

Odds of Macron winning a plurality in round 1: 45.2%

Odds of Fillon winning a plurality in round 1: 12.7%

Odds of Mélenchon winning a plurality in round 1: 10.5%

Round 2 Probabilities


Macron versus Le Pen (41.2% chance of happening)
  Odds of Macron win: 96.8%

Fillon versus Le Pen (12%)
  Odds of Fillon win: 86.4%

Macron versus Fillon (17.7%)
  Odds of Macron win: 99%

Melenchon versus Le Pen (10%)
  Odds of Melenchon win: 89.3%

Macron versus Melenchon (14.9%)
  Odds of Macron win: 90%

Melenchon versus Fillon (4.2%)
  Odds of Fillon win: 15%



Polls

(Scroll left-to-right)
Pollster Date Sample SP-Cheminade LO-Arthaud NPA-Poutou FI-Melenchon PS-Hamon EM-Macron LR-Fillon DLF-Dupont-Aignan FN-Le Pen Resistons!-Lassalle UPR-Asselineau
Odoxa 2017-04-21 953 0.0 0.0 1.0 19.0 7.5 24.5 19.0 4.5 23.0 0.5 1.0
BVA 2017-04-21 1494 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.5 8.0 23.0 19.0 4.0 23.0 1.0 0.5
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-04-21 2823 0.5 0.5 1.5 18.5 7.0 24.5 19.5 4.0 22.5 1.0 1.0
Odoxa 2017-04-20 1433 0.0 0.5 1.5 19.5 6.0 25.0 19.5 4.0 22.0 1.0 1.0
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-04-20 2810 0.5 0.5 1.5 18.5 7.0 24.0 19.5 4.0 22.5 1.5 1.0
Ipsos 2017-04-20 1401 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.0 7.5 24.0 19.0 4.0 22.0 1.5 1.0
Elabe 2017-04-20 1445 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.5 7.0 24.0 20.0 4.0 21.5 1.0 1.0
OpinionWay 2017-04-20 2269 0.0 0.0 2.0 18.0 8.0 23.0 21.0 4.0 22.0 1.0 1.0
Harris 2017-04-20 962 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.0 7.5 24.5 20.0 4.0 21.0 1.0 1.0
BVA 2017-04-19 1427 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.0 8.5 24.0 19.0 3.5 23.0 0.5 0.5
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-04-19 2792 0.5 0.5 1.5 18.5 7.5 23.5 19.5 4.0 22.5 1.5 1.0
OpinionWay 2017-04-19 2394 0.0 0.0 2.0 19.0 8.0 23.0 20.0 4.0 22.0 1.0 1.0
Harris 2017-04-19 2812 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.0 7.5 25.0 19.0 4.0 22.0 1.0 0.5
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-04-18 2804 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.0 7.5 23.5 19.5 4.0 22.5 1.0 1.0
OpinionWay 2017-04-18 2417 0.0 0.0 2.0 19.0 8.0 23.0 20.0 4.0 22.0 1.0 1.0
Ifop-Fiducial 2017-04-17 2796 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.5 7.5 23.0 19.5 4.0 22.5 1.0 1.0
Ipsos 2017-04-17 8274 0.5 0.5 1.5 19.0 8.0 23.0 19.5 4.0 22.5 1.0 1.0
Elabe 2017-04-17 1438 0.5 0.5 2.0 18.0 8.0 24.0 19.5 4.0 23.0 0.5 0.5
OpinionWay 2017-04-17 2423 0.0 0.0 2.0 19.0 8.0 23.0 20.0 4.0 22.0 1.0 1.0
Kantar Sofres 2017-04-17 1530 0.5 0.5 2.0 18.0 8.0 24.0 18.5 4.0 23.0 1.0 1.0

Keep an eye out for updates to this page. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me via twitter or email.