The race between Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon, and Marine Le Pen is heating up, but the election might not be as close (or unbalanced!) as you think. Here’s what a polling and statistics-based forecast of the election tell us, updated daily until the election on April 23rd, 2017 and May 7th, 2017. Click here to find out how this works.
Current Odds:
First Round Polling Average: 23.77%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 73.5%
Second Round Win Probability: 70.55%
First Round Polling Average: 19.49%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 34.33%
Second Round Win Probability: 11.49%
First Round Polling Average: 22.38%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 62.75%
Second Round Win Probability: 4.07%
First Round Polling Average: 7.62%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 0.06%
Second Round Win Probability: 0.01%
First Round Polling Average: 18.89%
First Round Win/Runner-up Probability: 29.37%
Second Round Win Probability: 13.88%
Odds Over Time
Of course, today’s probabilities aren’t the only forecasts we can generate. Here’s a look at how the candidates’ chances have evolved over time. Although these oods look jumpy now, look for them to settle as we get closer to April 23 and May 7.
Chance of Winning or Getting Second Place in the First Round:
Chance of Winning the Second Round:
Poll Averages
The win probabilities above are generated from each candidates’ projected performance in the first and second round of the election. Below are two histograms of possible outcomes for each party in both rounds:
Round 1:
A look at multi-party vote shares since Jan. 1,2017:
Range of Possible Outcomes:
Round 2:
A look at two-party vote shares since Jan. 1,2017:
Range of Possible Outcomes:
Scenarios
Round 1 Probabilities
Odds of Le Pen winning a plurality in round 1: 31.4%
Odds of Macron winning a plurality in round 1: 44.7%
Odds of Fillon winning a plurality in round 1: 13.1%
Odds of Mélenchon winning a plurality in round 1: 10.8%
Round 2 Probabilities
Macron versus Le Pen (40.6% chance of happening)
Odds of Macron win: 96.9%
Fillon versus Le Pen (12.3%)
Odds of Fillon win: 86.3%
Macron versus Fillon (17.7%)
Odds of Macron win: 98.5%
Melenchon versus Le Pen (9.9%)
Odds of Melenchon win: 88.6%
Macron versus Melenchon (15.1%)
Odds of Macron win: 91%
Melenchon versus Fillon (4.3%)
Odds of Fillon win: 15%
Polls
(Scroll left-to-right)
| Pollster | Date | Sample | SP-Cheminade | LO-Arthaud | NPA-Poutou | FI-Melenchon | PS-Hamon | EM-Macron | LR-Fillon | DLF-Dupont-Aignan | FN-Le Pen | Resistons!-Lassalle | UPR-Asselineau |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odoxa | 2017-04-21 | 953 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 19.0 | 7.5 | 24.5 | 19.0 | 4.5 | 23.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| BVA | 2017-04-21 | 1494 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 19.5 | 8.0 | 23.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Ifop-Fiducial | 2017-04-21 | 2823 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 18.5 | 7.0 | 24.5 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 22.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Odoxa | 2017-04-20 | 1433 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 19.5 | 6.0 | 25.0 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Ifop-Fiducial | 2017-04-20 | 2810 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 18.5 | 7.0 | 24.0 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 22.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Ipsos | 2017-04-20 | 1401 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 19.0 | 7.5 | 24.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Elabe | 2017-04-20 | 1445 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 19.5 | 7.0 | 24.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 21.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| OpinionWay | 2017-04-20 | 2269 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Harris | 2017-04-20 | 962 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 19.0 | 7.5 | 24.5 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| BVA | 2017-04-19 | 1427 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 19.0 | 8.5 | 24.0 | 19.0 | 3.5 | 23.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Ifop-Fiducial | 2017-04-19 | 2792 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 18.5 | 7.5 | 23.5 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 22.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| OpinionWay | 2017-04-19 | 2394 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 23.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Harris | 2017-04-19 | 2812 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 19.0 | 7.5 | 25.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Ifop-Fiducial | 2017-04-18 | 2804 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 19.0 | 7.5 | 23.5 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 22.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| OpinionWay | 2017-04-18 | 2417 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 23.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Ifop-Fiducial | 2017-04-17 | 2796 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 19.5 | 7.5 | 23.0 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 22.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Ipsos | 2017-04-17 | 8274 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 23.0 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 22.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Elabe | 2017-04-17 | 1438 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 24.0 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| OpinionWay | 2017-04-17 | 2423 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 23.0 | 20.0 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Kantar Sofres | 2017-04-17 | 1530 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 24.0 | 18.5 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Keep an eye out for updates to this page. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me via twitter or email.