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Germany Federal Election Forecast

Who’s Ahead in the Germany Federal Election?

Germany’s current center-right governing coalition, the Union party made up of the Cristian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union, is entering its 12th year in power. Will Angela Merkel lead her party into the next decade, marking 20 years of her rule, or will she fall to the Social Democrats? We’ll update you every day until election day on September 24th, 2017.

Current Odds:

CDU/CSU (Angela Merkel)(Incumbent Party)
Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union Unity Party
Polling Average: 37.4%
Win Probability: 88.43%
SPD (Martin Schulz)
Social Democratic Party
Polling Average: 24.3%
Win Probability: 11.4%
AfD (Frauke Petry)
Alternative for Germany
Polling Average: 9.41%
Win Probability: 0.06%
Die Linke (Katja Kipping)
The Left
Polling Average: 9.71%
Win Probability: 0%
Die Grünen (Simone Peter)
Alliance '90/The Greens
Polling Average: 7.17%
Win Probability: 0%
FDP (Christian Lindner)
Free Democratic Party
Polling Average: 8.83%
Win Probability: 0.03%

Odds Over Time

Of course, today’s probabilities aren’t the only forecasts we can generate. Here’s a look at how the candidates’ chances have evolved over time. Although these chances look rocky now, look for them to settle as we get closer to September 24th.

Possible Vote Shares

The win probabilities above are generated from each candidates’ projected performance in the election. Here’s a range of what is possible for each candidate.

A look at those polled vote shares have evolved since Jan. 1,2017:
And here’s a look at the range of possibilities.

How does this work? (Coming Soon!)

Keep an eye out for updates to this page. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me via twitter or email.