Politics-Europe

All posts about politics in any Eurpean nation will be here.


2017 Germany Federal Election Forecast


Polls and Approval Ratings Forecast a Tory Win, But Error Could Be Large

Polls and approval ratings give a 70 to 95 percent chance of a Tory win on Thursday, but a hung parliament is a real possibility.

Labour Usually Falls Short Of Its Polling Average

Past Polling data shows that there is reason to be skeptical of Labour scoring a huge upset victory. But it's still possible.

Approval Ratings Forecast Double-Digit Win for Theresa May's Conservatives

What approval ratings predict for the UK election that polling does not.

UK Pollsters, Forecasters Looking for a Win in Snap Election

Will polls of the 2017 United Kingdom "snap" election be better than they were last time around?

The UK Election is Not Just About Brexit

Tories are headed for a big win in the UK election, but how much do voters really care about the Kingdom's decision to leave the EU?

What a Macron Win Means for French Parliament

This is what Macron's victory over Le Pen means for polls, pundits, and parliament.

Le Pen Has Almost No Chance of Winning the France Election

If Emmanuel macron loses the race for president, it will be one of the biggest upsets in political history (well, for as far back as we have polling).

In France, All Signs Point Towards a President Emmanuel Macron

Polls in France have a proven record of accuracy. Conventional wisdom is overestimating Marine Le Pen's chances of winning the France presidency.

(Almost) Anything Could Happen in Round One of the France Presidential Election

Round one of the France 2017 election is way too close to call. I use our election forecast to show you why.

What to Know About the France 2017 Election — Polls and Predictions

I discuss the current climate of the France presidential election, cover some theoretics of my forecast model, and deliver some food for thought.

Benchmarking Recent Events in the 2017 France Presidential Election

What does the model say about Fillon's Fallout and Macronmentum?

How am I Forecasting the 2017 Netherlands General Election?

A look at past and present polling data.

How am I Forecasting the 2017 France Presidential Election?

Polls and statistics tell us most of the story.

A Primer on Polling Error in 2016 — An Historical and Comparative Perspective

Polling error in the 2016 US election may not have been as bad as you think. Where does it stand with history? With other democracies?