Politics-US

All posts about United States politics will be here.


Have Democrats Really Lunged Left? Maybe Not.

More Democrats identify as liberal than ever before, but key policy positions have changed little.

Republican House Members Have Polarized More Than Their Democratic Counterparts

Using some cool new graphics software to look at how Congress has changed over time

Congressional Elections are More National, Partisan, and Responsive than Ever Before

The old maxim "all politics is local" has been replaced. "All politics is national" is the new(-ish) hip phrase.

Georgia 6 Could Come Down to All But A Coin Toss

Data points to a near-photo-finish for Jon Ossoff (D) and Karen Handel (R) in the Georgia 06 special election. They have almost equal odds of victory.

Democrats are Voting Much More than Last Time Around

But will these repeated Democratic waves turn into a Democratic tide?

Montana Election Bolsters Predictions of a Large "Democratic Wave"

Democrats performed better than expected in Montana's special election Thursday, suggesting a large "Democratic wave" is coming.

(INTERACTIVE) - The Trump Tracker

Tracking Donald Trump's Job Approval Polls from Now until January 2021/25

The Birdy Pulpit — Analyzing Trump's Twitter Account

Fear, anger, sadness. These are the emotions Trump has over others.

House Effects in Trump Approval Polls

Not all polls are created equal.

Trump is Getting More Negative on Twitter

And he Really Doesn't Like Mondays

Polarization and Political Bubbles Since 1960

Americans are More Polarized than Ever Before

A Primer on Polling Error in 2016 — An Historical and Comparative Perspective

Polling error in the 2016 US election may not have been as bad as you think. Where does it stand with history? With other democracies?

(INTERACTIVE) Presidential Popularity - Where Does Trump Fit in?

Is Donald Trump really the most unpopular President in modern American history? Yes.

(INTERACTIVE) Mapping America's Democratic Shift

How has America changed since John Quincy Adams? Mapping the electorate from 1828 to 2016.

The Least Predictable Counties in the United States

Is Election Forecasting Harder in Different Parts of the Country?

There Is No (Good) Data To Support Claims of Vote Rigging in Wisconsin

Some computer scientists would have you believe the election was rigged in Wisconsin. That's not the case, and any claims of such are unsubstantiated.

President Trump — Our 2016 Forecast's Postmortem

This is not what any of us expected

Final 2016 Election Forecast

Hillary Clinton's has great chances of winning the election, but it's not over until it's over.

Do "October Surprises" Change Elections? No

Let's take a look into the history of late-breaking election scandals and their impacts on the polls.

At Lively Rally, Trump Supporters Foreshadow Their Party's Bleak Future

Trump is just the next iteration of crippling conservative policy.