Sarbjit Bakhshi, the Head of Political Markets over at Smarkets, sent me an email yesterday about their 2020 traders. He included this graph of the odds that any given person will become the next US president:
As far as I can tell, their market value for Trump being re-elected is about the same as PredictIt’s but the 2020 candidate data is quite a bit different:
Whereas PredictIt traders have Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris tied at 22% and Joe Biden ahead at 25, Smarkets punters favor Harris by an implied 4%.
The markets also diverge on the odds assigned to Andrew Yang, which probably speaks to the fact that PredictIt has a lot more meme-ing Americans on it than Smarkets does.
I don’t presume to make a judgement on who is “right” here. I’ll let the crowds fight amongst themselves. I’m just happy to have more market prediction data. The more the merrier, I think!