Nov. 26, 2018 »
Want to Know What Happened in the 2018 Midterms? Look at Rural America.
» Something has been bugging me about how we’re interpreting the midterms.
Nov. 06, 2018 »
The 2018 Midterms are Upon Us: Final Thoughts Beforehand
» Final forecasting thoughts and a preliminary dive into the data that will likely tell the story of this year’s midterms.
Sep. 14, 2018 »
Daily Updates on the 2018 Midterms
» I’m writing short daily posts on the news and data shaping the midterms. Tune in via Patreon!
Aug. 31, 2018 »
APSA 2018 — Forecasting House Midterm Elections
Jun. 06, 2018 »
California Primaries Hint at Competitive November Midterms, Handful of Democratic Pickups
» Combined with past evidence, last night’s primaries point toward a possible gain of 8 seats for the Democrats in CA, but most likely just 3-4.
Jun. 05, 2018 »
Midterms Super Tuesday: Disaster in California? Plus, The Most Important Primary Elections on June 5, 2018
» Welcome to the jungle (primary).
May. 15, 2018 »
May 15 Elections: PA Primaries and More Special Elections (Which Already Predict a Likely Democratic Victory in November)
» Primary and special elections in PA, ID, OR, NE, and AL Tuesday night will give us another look at the fight for the House in 2018. However, what we already know is quite solid.
May. 08, 2018 »
Democrats Scored a Big, Unexpected Win in the May 8 Primaries
» An Incumbent Republican House Representative just lost his reelection bid to a primary challenger in North Carolina. What does that mean for the November midterms?
May. 01, 2018 »
Congressional Polling Versus Special Elections: Are Democrats Really Heading for a Wave?
» Democratic candidates have beaten expectations by 17 points on average in federal special elections since 2016, but are only up 7 points in the national generic congressional ballot polling average. What’s with the disconnect?
Apr. 25, 2018 »
Five Things We Learned from the AZ-08 Special Election
» All (that we know) of the the evidence keeps pointing toward a large Democratic wave in November
Apr. 24, 2018 »
AZ-08 Special Election: Either Way, It’s Another Data Point for Predictions of a 2018 Democratic Wave
» Are Democrats headed toward another special election upset victory in this historically Republican congressional district, or will a moral victory suffice for their predictions of a November wave?
Apr. 20, 2018 »
Another Model to Forecast the House Elections? Meet Mr. P.
» Another statistical method applied to the House elections might tell us a similar story.
Mar. 16, 2018 »
What Happened in Pennsylvania’s 18th and What It Means for Democrats in November
» Democrat Conor Lamb swung this southwestern Pennsylvania district by more than 20 points. Here’s the data behind his win and what it means for Democrats more broadly in 2018.
Mar. 13, 2018 »
What to Expect in the PA-18 Special Election (And How to Watch The Results)
» The polling says that Conor Lamb (Dem.) is favored, but he could easily lose by double digits to Rick Saccone (Rep.) and still perform within the realm of possibilities.
Mar. 06, 2018 »
Texas Early Voting Hints at Close Race in November… Maybe
» Democrats just wrapped up a whirlwind two weeks of early voting for the 2018 Texas primary elections. What does that mean for November?
Feb. 19, 2018 »
What the Pennsylvania Congressional Map Redraw Means for 2018
» The court-proposed redraw of the Pennsylvania Congressional map gives Democrats two more U.S. House seats and increases their chance of a majority by 4%.
Feb. 05, 2018 »
2018 Expectations Roughly Stable Amid Democratic Polling Slide
» Generic ballot polls show a shrinking Democratic lead in the race for the U.S. House, but observers should be careful about noisy estimates and what this actually means for Election Day.
Dec. 07, 2017 »
What Would Happen if Thirty House Members Resigned?
» Reports indicate that John Conyers and Trent Franks will be just the beginning of a massive investigation of sexual abuse in Congress. What will happen if reports are true?
Nov. 24, 2017 »
The 3 Types of Districts that Could Give Democrats the House
» Democrats have a good shot at winning Republican districts that Clinton won in the 2016 election, but they should be careful not to overlook other opportunities.
Nov. 16, 2017 »
Be Careful With Polls of Unnamed “Generic” Candidates
» Democratic candidates in House elections get a boost in the polls when pollsters do not name names.