Mar. 06, 2018 »
Texas Early Voting Hints at Close Race in November… Maybe
» Democrats just wrapped up a whirlwind two weeks of early voting for the 2018 Texas primary elections. What does that mean for November?
Feb. 19, 2018 »
What the Pennsylvania Congressional Map Redraw Means for 2018
» The court-proposed redraw of the Pennsylvania Congressional map gives Democrats two more U.S. House seats and increases their chance of a majority by 4%.
Feb. 10, 2018 »
GOP Pennsylvania Congressional Map Redraw is More of the Same
» Pennsylvania Republicans gerrymandered their state’s U.S. House map. After being ordered to redraw it, the proposed remedy is as bad — maybe even worse — than the old map.
Feb. 05, 2018 »
2018 Expectations Roughly Stable Amid Democratic Polling Slide
» Generic ballot polls show a shrinking Democratic lead in the race for the U.S. House, but observers should be careful about noisy estimates and what this actually means for Election Day.
Dec. 22, 2017 »
The Best Books About U.S. Politics That I Read in 2017
» The best politics/American history books that I read in 2017, and the ones I recommend to you.
Dec. 10, 2017 »
Roy Moore is Maybe, Probably Ahead in the Alabama Senate Race… Perhaps. Here’s What We Know.
» What do polls and fundamentals say about the AL Senate race between Roy Moore and Doug Jones? What should you pay attention to on election night?
Dec. 07, 2017 »
What Would Happen if Thirty House Members Resigned?
» Reports indicate that John Conyers and Trent Franks will be just the beginning of a massive investigation of sexual abuse in Congress. What will happen if reports are true?
Dec. 02, 2017 »
The Media Stopped Covering Roy Moore’s Sex Scandal, Then He Bounced Back
» Blame the media, at least in part, for Roy Moore bouncing back in the polls of the special election for Alabama’s Senate Seat.
Nov. 24, 2017 »
The 3 Types of Districts that Could Give Democrats the House
» Democrats have a good shot at winning Republican districts that Clinton won in the 2016 election, but they should be careful not to overlook other opportunities.
Nov. 16, 2017 »
Be Careful With Polls of Unnamed “Generic” Candidates
» Democratic candidates in House elections get a boost in the polls when pollsters do not name names.
Nov. 07, 2017 »
What To Expect in Virginia’s Gubernatorial Election (And Tips For Watching It)
» Democrat Ralph Northam is set to square off against Republican Ed Gillespie Tuesday evening. There are few certain clues to how it will turn out.
Nov. 05, 2017 »
Does Money Matter in House Elections?
» Democratic challengers are raising much more cash than their Republican House opponents, but that may not actually matter for election outcomes.
Oct. 13, 2017 »
House 2018 Model Talk: Regression versus Simulation
» “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
Oct. 07, 2017 »
Which House Retirements Help Democrats the Most? And Other Questions.
» The House map provides a huge upside for Democrats — if they can get there. There are several paths to a Democratic House, and my model can help us find them.
Sep. 26, 2017 »
What to Expect in the Alabama Senate GOP Primary Runoff
» Roy Moore is ahead in polling of the Alabama Senate GOP primary runoff, but can we really expect this Bannon-backed ex-judge to pull off a win?
Sep. 14, 2017 »
For NYT Upshot: How Much Can the Youth Vote Actually Help Democrats?
Aug. 19, 2017 »
American Political Ideology, A Twitter Bot Approach
» Social media presents us with one of the best ways to expose the ill-constrained political beliefs of 99%
Aug. 16, 2017 »
How am I Forecasting the 2018 House Midterm Election?
» Combining Long-term national and local electoral preferences to forecast the 2018 US House midterms
Jul. 27, 2017 »
Have Democrats Really Lunged Left? Maybe Not.
» More Democrats identify as liberal than ever before, but key policy positions have changed little.
Jul. 22, 2017 »
Republican House Members Have Polarized More Than Their Democratic Counterparts
» Using some cool new graphics software to look at how Congress has changed over time.