Nov. 24, 2017 »
The 3 Types of Districts that Could Give Democrats the House
» Democrats have a good shot at winning Republican districts that Clinton won in the 2016 election, but they should be careful not to overlook other opportunities.
Nov. 16, 2017 »
Be Careful With Polls of Unnamed “Generic” Candidates
» Democratic candidates in House elections get a boost in the polls when pollsters do not name names.
Nov. 07, 2017 »
What To Expect in Virginia’s Gubernatorial Election (And Tips For Watching It)
» Democrat Ralph Northam is set to square off against Republican Ed Gillespie Tuesday evening. There are few certain clues to how it will turn out.
Nov. 05, 2017 »
Does Money Matter in House Elections?
» Democratic challengers are raising much more cash than their Republican House opponents, but that may not actually matter for election outcomes.
Oct. 13, 2017 »
House 2018 Model Talk: Regression versus Simulation
» “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
Oct. 07, 2017 »
Which House Retirements Help Democrats the Most? And Other Questions.
» The House map provides a huge upside for Democrats — if they can get there. There are several paths to a Democratic House, and my model can help us find them.
Sep. 26, 2017 »
What to Expect in the Alabama Senate GOP Primary Runoff
» Roy Moore is ahead in polling of the Alabama Senate GOP primary runoff, but can we really expect this Bannon-backed ex-judge to pull off a win?
Sep. 14, 2017 »
For NYT Upshot: How Much Can the Youth Vote Actually Help Democrats?
Aug. 19, 2017 »
American Political Ideology, A Twitter Bot Approach
» Social media presents us with one of the best ways to expose the ill-constrained political beliefs of 99%
Aug. 16, 2017 »
How am I Forecasting the 2018 House Midterm Election?
» Combining Long-term national and local electoral preferences to forecast the 2018 US House midterms
Jul. 27, 2017 »
Have Democrats Really Lunged Left? Maybe Not.
» More Democrats identify as liberal than ever before, but key policy positions have changed little.
Jul. 22, 2017 »
Republican House Members Have Polarized More Than Their Democratic Counterparts
» Using some cool new graphics software to look at how Congress has changed over time.
Jul. 08, 2017 »
Congressional Elections are More Partisan, National than Ever Before
» The old maxim “all politics is local” has been ousted. “All politics is national” is the new(-ish) hip phrase.
Jun. 18, 2017 »
Georgia 6 Could Come Down to All But A Coin Toss
» Data points to a near-photo-finish for Jon Ossoff (D) and Karen Handel ® in the Georgia 06 special election. They have almost equal odds of victory.
Jun. 14, 2017 »
Democrats are Voting Much More than Last Time Around
» But will these repeated Democratic waves turn into a Democratic tide?
Jun. 07, 2017 »
Polls and Approval Ratings Forecast a Tory Win, But Error Could Be Large
» Polls and approval ratings give a 70 to 95 percent chance of a Tory win on Thursday, but a hung parliament is a real possibility.
Jun. 01, 2017 »
Labour Usually Falls Short Of Its Polling Average
» Past Polling data shows that there is reason to be skeptical of Labour scoring a huge upset victory. But it is still possible.
May. 26, 2017 »
Montana Election Bolsters Predictions of a Large “Democratic Wave”
» Democrats performed better than expected in Montana’s special election Thursday, suggesting a large “Democratic wave” is coming.
May. 22, 2017 »
Approval Ratings Forecast Double-Digit Win for Theresa May’s Conservatives
» What approval ratings predict for the UK election that polling does not.
May. 16, 2017 »
UK Pollsters, Forecasters Looking for a Win in Snap Election
» Will polls of the 2017 United Kingdom “snap” election be better than they were last time around?