Jul. 08, 2017 »
Congressional Elections are More Partisan, National than Ever Before
» The old maxim “all politics is local” has been ousted. “All politics is national” is the new(-ish) hip phrase.
Jun. 18, 2017 »
Georgia 6 Could Come Down to All But A Coin Toss
» Data points to a near-photo-finish for Jon Ossoff (D) and Karen Handel ® in the Georgia 06 special election. They have almost equal odds of victory.
Jun. 14, 2017 »
Democrats are Voting Much More than Last Time Around
» But will these repeated Democratic waves turn into a Democratic tide?
Jun. 07, 2017 »
Polls and Approval Ratings Forecast a Tory Win, But Error Could Be Large
» Polls and approval ratings give a 70 to 95 percent chance of a Tory win on Thursday, but a hung parliament is a real possibility.
Jun. 01, 2017 »
Labour Usually Falls Short Of Its Polling Average
» Past Polling data shows that there is reason to be skeptical of Labour scoring a huge upset victory. But it is still possible.
May. 26, 2017 »
Montana Election Bolsters Predictions of a Large “Democratic Wave”
» Democrats performed better than expected in Montana’s special election Thursday, suggesting a large “Democratic wave” is coming.
May. 22, 2017 »
Approval Ratings Forecast Double-Digit Win for Theresa May’s Conservatives
» What approval ratings predict for the UK election that polling does not.
May. 16, 2017 »
UK Pollsters, Forecasters Looking for a Win in Snap Election
» Will polls of the 2017 United Kingdom “snap” election be better than they were last time around?
May. 09, 2017 »
The UK Election is Not Just About Brexit
» Tories are headed for a big win in the UK election, but how much do voters really care about the Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU?
May. 07, 2017 »
What a Macron Win Means for French Parliament
» This is what Macron’s victory over Le Pen means for polls, pundits, and parliament.
May. 02, 2017 »
Le Pen Has Almost No Chance of Winning the France Election
» If Emmanuel macron loses the race for president, it will be one of the biggest upsets in political history (well, for as far back as we have polling).
Apr. 25, 2017 »
In France, All Signs Point Towards a President Emmanuel Macron
» Polls in France have a proven record of accuracy. Conventional wisdom is overestimating Marine Le Pen’s chances of winning the France presidency.
Apr. 22, 2017 »
(Almost) Anything Could Happen in Round One of the France Presidential Election
» Round one of the France 2017 election is way too close to call. I use our election forecast to show you why.
Apr. 20, 2017 »
What to Know About the France 2017 Election — Polls and Predictions
» I discuss the current climate of the France presidential election, cover some theoretics of my forecast model, and deliver some food for thought.
Feb. 27, 2017 »
House Effects in Trump Approval Polls
» Not all polls are created equal.
Jan. 03, 2017 »
A Primer on Polling Error in 2016 — A Historical and Comparative Perspective
» Polling error in the 2016 US election may not have been as bad as you think. Where does it stand with history? With other democracies?