Forecasting the 2018 FIFA World Cup

A fun project using poisson processes to predict the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

June 14, 2018

Updated daily, after all matches have been played. A fun, simple (yet thorough) ELO-based simulation model to forecast the 2018 FIFA World Cup. How does this work?

Chance of winning the 2018 World Cup final

Chances over time

Each team’s chance of making certain stages

Match probabilities for every (determined) game

(This works best if you CTRL/CMD+F the desired team name.)

Argentina vs Croatia:

Argentina vs Iceland:

Australia vs Peru:

Belgium vs Panama:

Belgium vs Tunisia:

Brazil vs Costa Rica:

Brazil vs Switzerland:

Colombia vs Japan:

Costa Rica vs Serbia:

Croatia vs Nigeria:

Denmark vs Australia:

Denmark vs France:

Egypt vs Uruguay:

England vs Belgium:

England vs Panama:

France vs Australia:

France vs Peru:

Germany vs Mexico:

Germany vs Sweden:

Iceland vs Croatia:

Iran vs Portugal:

Iran vs Spain:

Japan vs Poland:

Japan vs Senegal:

Mexico vs Sweden:

Morocco vs Iran:

Nigeria vs Argentina:

Nigeria vs Iceland:

Panama vs Tunisia:

Peru vs Denmark:

Poland vs Colombia:

Poland vs Senegal:

Portugal vs Morocco:

Portugal vs Spain:

Russia vs Egypt:

Russia vs Saudi Arabia:

Saudi Arabia vs Egypt:

Senegal vs Colombia:

Serbia vs Brazil:

Serbia vs Switzerland:

South Korea vs Germany:

South Korea vs Mexico:

Spain vs Morocco:

Sweden vs South Korea:

Switzerland vs Costa Rica:

Tunisia vs England:

Uruguay vs Russia:

Uruguay vs Saudi Arabia: