Hogg Professor of Government at the University of Texas at Austin Christopher Wlezien and I write on the dynamics of national polling in the 2016 US presidential election. Which events caused change? Which didn’t? Why did Hillary Clinton lose in a “surprise” Donald Trump upset victory? We answer these questions.
Dynamics of (National) Electoral Preferences in the 2016 US Presidential Race
Wlezien, Christopher and George Elliott Morris. (2017). Dynamics of (National) Electoral Preferences in the 2016 US Presidential Race. In A. Cavari, R. Powell & K. Mayer (Eds.), The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of a Political Earthquake. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.
Earlier draft version (with the University of Michigan’s Stuart Soroka).