Jun. 06, 2018 »
California Primaries Hint at Competitive November Midterms, Handful of Democratic Pickups
» Combined with past evidence, last night’s primaries point toward a possible gain of 8 seats for the Democrats in CA, but most likely just 3-4.
Jun. 05, 2018 »
Midterms Super Tuesday: Disaster in California? Plus, The Most Important Primary Elections on June 5, 2018
» Welcome to the jungle (primary).
May. 15, 2018 »
May 15 Elections: PA Primaries and More Special Elections (Which Already Predict a Likely Democratic Victory in November)
» Primary and special elections in PA, ID, OR, NE, and AL Tuesday night will give us another look at the fight for the House in 2018. However, what we already know is quite solid.
Nov. 24, 2017 »
The 3 Types of Districts that Could Give Democrats the House
» Democrats have a good shot at winning Republican districts that Clinton won in the 2016 election, but they should be careful not to overlook other opportunities.
Nov. 05, 2017 »
Does Money Matter in House Elections?
» Democratic challengers are raising much more cash than their Republican House opponents, but that may not actually matter for election outcomes.
Oct. 07, 2017 »
Which House Retirements Help Democrats the Most? And Other Questions.
» The House map provides a huge upside for Democrats — if they can get there. There are several paths to a Democratic House, and my model can help us find them.