May. 08, 2018 »
Democrats Scored a Big, Unexpected Win in the May 8 Primaries
» An Incumbent Republican House Representative just lost his reelection bid to a primary challenger in North Carolina. What does that mean for the November midterms?
Apr. 20, 2018 »
Another Model to Forecast the House Elections? Meet Mr. P.
» Another statistical method applied to the House elections might tell us a similar story.
Feb. 05, 2018 »
2018 Expectations Roughly Stable Amid Democratic Polling Slide
» Generic ballot polls show a shrinking Democratic lead in the race for the U.S. House, but observers should be careful about noisy estimates and what this actually means for Election Day.
Oct. 13, 2017 »
House 2018 Model Talk: Regression versus Simulation
» “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
Aug. 02, 2017 »
2018 U.S. House Midterm Elections Forecast
Jun. 07, 2017 »
Polls and Approval Ratings Forecast a Tory Win, But Error Could Be Large
» Polls and approval ratings give a 70 to 95 percent chance of a Tory win on Thursday, but a hung parliament is a real possibility.
Jun. 01, 2017 »
Labour Usually Falls Short Of Its Polling Average
» Past Polling data shows that there is reason to be skeptical of Labour scoring a huge upset victory. But it is still possible.
May. 22, 2017 »
Approval Ratings Forecast Double-Digit Win for Theresa May’s Conservatives
» What approval ratings predict for the UK election that polling does not.
May. 16, 2017 »
UK Pollsters, Forecasters Looking for a Win in Snap Election
» Will polls of the 2017 United Kingdom “snap” election be better than they were last time around?
May. 09, 2017 »
The UK Election is Not Just About Brexit
» Tories are headed for a big win in the UK election, but how much do voters really care about the Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU?
May. 07, 2017 »
What a Macron Win Means for French Parliament
» This is what Macron’s victory over Le Pen means for polls, pundits, and parliament.
May. 02, 2017 »
Le Pen Has Almost No Chance of Winning the France Election
» If Emmanuel macron loses the race for president, it will be one of the biggest upsets in political history (well, for as far back as we have polling).
Apr. 25, 2017 »
In France, All Signs Point Towards a President Emmanuel Macron
» Polls in France have a proven record of accuracy. Conventional wisdom is overestimating Marine Le Pen’s chances of winning the France presidency.
Apr. 22, 2017 »
(Almost) Anything Could Happen in Round One of the France Presidential Election
» Round one of the France 2017 election is way too close to call. I use our election forecast to show you why.
Apr. 20, 2017 »
What to Know About the France 2017 Election — Polls and Predictions
» I discuss the current climate of the France presidential election, cover some theoretics of my forecast model, and deliver some food for thought.